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NDR takeaways,Back on track with share gain
内容摘要
Volume recovery to carry on into 2H19E. As express products bottomed out since May, combined with robust incremental volume from preferential products, mgmt were confident that the Company would go ahead with accelerated volume growth. We expect volume to increase 21%/ 20% in FY19/ 20E. Meanwhile, preferential products would remain as part of LT strategies to enrich product portfolio and benefit SF from e-commerce prosperity, mgmt. added, with margins intact backed by 1) high-capacity truck adoption, 2) capacity sharing between heavy cargo and preferential products, and 3) technology empowerment. Controllable financial pressure despite heavy Capex. Mgmt expected Capex to accelerate in 2H19E, while total Capex in FY19E would be below 10% of total revenue. Considering continued ABS shelf offering (industrial parks as underlying asset) and CB issuance in 2H19E, mgmt believed the financial pressure would be under control. Mixed prospects on new business. Mgmt guided that revenue growth of heavy cargo would fall behind its volume growth due to self-operated business slowdown in FY20E, caused by fierce competition and limited size of high-end market, while under more aggressive strategy, cold chain was expected to accelerate with widening loss. We forecast that heavy cargo/ cold chain will grow 29%/ 41% YoY in FY20E, respectively. Maintain BUY with TP unchanged. We maintain our forecasts unchanged and reiterate BUY with TP of RMB46.53 based on 33x FY20E P/E, due to 1) SF’s ongoing volume growth momentum and 2) easing financial pressure on heavy Capex. Key risks include deteriorating macro environment and slower-than-expected e-commerce growth.