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Successful channel reforms
内容摘要
We initiate coverage on Laojiao with an ADD rating and DCF-based TP of Rmb122 (WACC: 9.6%), implying 38x/31x FY19F/20F P/E. Laojiao is currently trading at 27x FY19F P/E, 2.0 s.d. above its historical average of 19x since its listing in 2009. In the past, Laojiao’s valuation was largely in line with, or slightly below, the industry average. We believe that Laojiao deserves to trade at premium vs. its peers owing to a potential ASP hike for its super-premium Cellar 1573 products and strong sales growth momentum, boosted by its profit-sharing distribution model. Downside risks are as follows: 1) over 67% of its sales are derived from its top five customers, which indicates the key distributors have strong bargaining power and influence on Laojiao’s distribution channels, which might be a tail risk in the long term; and 2) a macroeconomic slowdown may affect super-premium baijiu consumption.