CMOC Group has released its 2025 results,with revenue of RMB206.68bn(-2.98%YoY)and an attributable NP of RMB20.34bn(+50.30%YoY),within the company’s guidance range of RMB20.0-20.8bn.In 4Q25,revenue reached RMB61.20bn(+5.02%YoY,+20.68%QoQ),with an attributable NP of RMB6.06bn(+15.21%YoY,+8.04%QoQ),the greater QoQ rise mainly due to QoQ increases in prices of key metals and higher copper sales volume.CMOC Group is aleading copper miner with growth potential,a key player in minor metals,and anew player in the gold segment,and we thus maintain BUY.
2025 company earnings and copper output both hit new highs
In 2025,the company achieved an attributable NP of RMB20.34bn,up by 50.30%YoY,with production volumes of all products exceeding the median of company guidance.Copper output reached 741.1kt,up by 13.99%YoY,ranking among the global top 10 copper producers,while copper sales reached 730kt,up by 5.90%YoY,with both 2025 earnings and copper output hitting record highs.In 4Q25,the attributable NP was RMB6.06bn,up by 8.04%QoQ,with copper production/sales volume rising by 4.20/6.15%QoQ to 198/210kt,while LME copper prices increased by 13.23%QoQ,and prices of other key metals also rose QoQ.For 2026,the company guides for further copper output growth to 760-820kt,plans to complete Phase II of the KFM project in 2027,adding 100kt of copper capacity,and is steadily advancing the next round of TFM capacity expansion.
Expansion into gold likely to become new earnings growth curve
In 2025,CMOC focused on expanding its gold resources,launching its gold business segment through consecutive acquisitions.In June 2025,the company acquired 100%equity in Ecuador’s Odin Mining,a world-class gold asset,for CAD581mn,with the mine currently in the preparatory stage and scheduled for commissioning in 2029.In December 2025,the company announced the acquisition of 100%equity in four producing gold mines in Brazil(Aurizona,RDM,and the Bahia integrated mining complex)for USD1,015mn,completing the transaction in just 40 days,with the company guiding for production of 6-8 tonnes in 2026.By 2029,the company expects its gold production capacity to reach 200kt.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that tungsten supply-demand dynamics are better than our previous expectations,we raise our tungsten price assumptions for 2026-2027,ultimately forecasting attributable NP of RMB35.2/38.8/43.6bn for the company(adjustments vs previous estimates for 2026/2027/2028:+9%/+8%/-).The company’s A-share peers trade at an average 2026E PE of 12.0x on Wind consensus.Given the company's position as aleading domestic copper miner with growth potential and its expansion into gold,we maintain a35%premium for its A-shares,assigning a2026E PE of 16.3x.Given the A/H premium of 15.57%(based on the one-year average level),we derive A-/H-share target prices of RMB26.81/HKD26.26(previous:RMB35.83/HKD33.95,based on 23.7x 2026E PE for A-shares and an 18.22%A/H premium).
Risks:weaker copper prices than we expect;delays in capacity ramping up or expansion;uncertainty surrounding cobalt policies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.