CCCC has reported 2025 revenue of RMB731,109mn (-5.29% YoY), an attributable net profit of RMB14,751mn (-36.92% YoY) and a recurring net profit of RMB11,198mn (-43.48% YoY). CCCC’s attributable net profit fell short of our estimate of RMB20,700mn, mainly as sluggish infrastructure investment led to lower revenue than we expected and increased accounts receivable resulted in higher impairment provisions than we expected. For 4Q25, revenue was RMB217,193mn (-7.70% YoY, +22.80% QoQ) and the attributable net profit was RMB1,104mn (-84.47% YoY, -72.93% QoQ). The value of newly-signed contracts in 2025 edged up by 0.13% YoY. CCCC guides for 2026 newly-signed contract value growth of no lower than 2.6% and revenue growth of no lower than 6.8%, demonstrating confidence in its operational improvements. Maintain BUY on the A-/H-shares.
Overseas revenue contribution further rose to 21.7%
In 2025, by segment, infrastructure construction revenue was RMB649bn (-4.76% YoY), with a GPM of 10.16% (-0.93pp YoY); infrastructure design revenue was RMB36.4bn (+0.42% YoY), with a GPM of 18.51% (-1.54pp YoY); dredging project revenue was RMB54.2bn (-8.79% YoY), with a GPM of 11.6% (-1.19pp YoY). By region, domestic/overseas revenues were RMB566.9/158.5bn (-10.4/+17.8% YoY). The share of overseas revenue rose by 4.16pp YoY to 21.7%. For 2025, the overall GPM was 11.37% (-0.92pp YoY). In 4Q25, the GPM was 12.15% (-1.84pp YoY, +0.36pp QoQ).
Improved cash receipts-to-revenue ratio boosted cash flow
The company’s 2025 overall expense ratio was 6.03% (+0.02pp YoY), with sales/administrative/R&D/financial expense ratios of 0.45/2.21/3.38/-0.01% (+0.05/-0.12/+0.01/+0.08pp YoY). For 2025, impairment losses totaled RMB9,380mn (+RMB1,518mn YoY), representing 1.28% of revenue (+0.26pp YoY). Overall, the attributable NPM was 2.02% (-1.01pp YoY). The net operating cash flow was RMB15,300mn, with the inflow expanding by RMB2,800mn YoY. For 2025, the cash receipts-to-revenue ratio/cash payment-to-cost ratio were 105.8/103.0% (+9.0/+5.9pp YoY).
In 2025, newly-signed contract value rose by 0.13% YoY
In 2025, newly-signed contract value was RMB1.88tn (+0.13% YoY). Specifically, the value of newly-signed infrastructure construction contracts was RMB1.72tn (+1.28% YoY), of which port/road & bridge/urban construction contracts accounted for RMB94.8/209.1/964.4bn (+8.16/-2.23/-1.27% YoY). The value of newly-signed infrastructure design contracts was RMB42.5bn (-19.3% YoY), and the value of newly-signed dredging project contracts was RMB106.9bn (-7.87% YoY). By region, domestic/overseas newly-signed contracts amounted to RMB1.49tn/ 392.4bn (-1.99/+9.09% YoY), with the latter accounting for c 20.8%.
Earnings forecasts and valuation
Considering that CCCC’s domestic arm targets high-quality development, we trim our revenue growth rate assumptions and project 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit at RMB15,478/15,902/16,156mn (-22.34%/-20.56%/- vs our previous estimates). We value the A-/H-shares at 9/5x 2026E PE, above their peers’ averages of 5.5/3.9x on Wind consensus, to factor in its overseas arm’s sound business climate and higher contribution, as well as resilient order intakes. We update our A-/H-share target prices to RMB8.55/HKD5.39 (previous: RMB11.02/ HKD6.71, corresponding to 9/5x 2026E PE). Maintain BUY on A-/H-shares.
Risks: infrastructure investment growth slowdown; overseas business development falling short of our expectations; a sharper GPM decline than we expect.