Earnings forecast and valuation
Factoring in the sharp fall in 1H26 alumina prices and higher production costs, we revise down our 2026-2028E attributable NP forecasts to USD281mn/USD483mn/ USD650mn (-28.15%/-1.35%/-0.72% vs our previous forecasts). Peers are trading at an average multiple of 5.67x 2027E PE (iFind consensus). Considering that greenfield aluminium capacity is poised to deliver substantial incremental earnings beyond 2027, thereby creating a steeper growth trajectory, we assign a valuation premium of 9.0x 2027E PE (vs 13x 2026E PE previously). Based on a USD/HKD exchange rate of 7.84 as of August 20, 2026, we derive a target price of HKD48.92 (from HKD64.21). Maintain BUY.