J&T Global Express has reported total parcel volume of 9,580m for 3Q26(+24.8%YoY),with daily volume averaging 104m and exceeding 100m for two consecutive quarters.By geography,parcel volumes were 2,890m in Southeast Asia(+44.5%YoY),6,430m in the Chinese mainland(+15.3%YoY),and 270m in other markets(+159.5%YoY).For 9M26,total parcel volume reached 27,090m(+25%YoY),with Southeast Asia/the Chinese mainland/other markets changing by+61.0/+11.5/+135.2%YoY.Overall,overseas markets sustained strong parcel volume growth in 9M26,while domestic growth outpaced the industry average to drive market share gains.Maintain BUY.
Robust parcel volume growth in Latin America
Southeast Asian parcel volume grew by 44.5%YoY in 3Q26,moderating from+71.2%in 1H26 on ahigher comparison base.Absolute volume growth remained elevated,securing the company’s leading market share in Southeast Asia(38.1%in 1H26,+5.3pp YoY).Parcel volume across other markets(primarily Latin America and the Middle East)rose by 159.5%YoY,accelerating from+119.9%in 1H26 as deepened partnerships with Mercado Libre,TikTok,Temu,and SHEIN catalyzed expansion across Latin America.For 9M26,parcel volume reached 8,410m in Southeast Asia(+61.0%YoY)and 640m in other markets(+135.2%YoY),with overseas markets continuing to provide the primary growth contribution.
China parcel volume growth accelerated
In the Chinese mainland,3Q26 parcel volume reached 6,430m(+15.3%YoY),rebounding noticeably from+9.6%in 1H26.This recovery was supported by the industry consensus against excessive competition and easing parcel price competition,which stabilized domestic revenue per parcel.For 1H26,the company’s market share in the Chinese mainland was 11.6%(+0.5pp YoY,ranking fifth).The pickup in 3Q26 parcel volume growth should drive market share gains.
Stepping up overseas capacity expansion and automation
As of 3Q26,J&T operated 292 sorting hubs(+46 since the beginning of the year)and 457 automated sorting systems(+44 since the beginning of the year).New capacity additions were focused on overseas markets in line with their respective development stages.Looking to 4Q26,we expect favorable business momentum across overseas e-commerce to persist,with Southeast Asian parcel volume maintaining elevated growth and Latin American expansion accelerating.In the Chinese mainland,anti-involution efforts should support ongoing improvements in parcel volume and revenue per parcel.On costs,surging international crude oil prices should lift transportation costs YoY and QoQ.
Lower earnings forecasts and cut target price to HKD11.30
With surging international crude oil prices raising transportation costs,we trim our 2026/2027/2028 attributable net profit forecasts by 8/8/10%to USD584/736/880mn(adjusted net profit:USD720/890/1,050mn).Applying 19.0x PE to our average 2026E to 2028E EPS of USD0.076—a premium to the average 8.0x 2026E to 2028E PE for Hong Kong-listed peers to reflect above-industry earnings growth and market outlook(attributable net profit CAGR of 22.8%for J&T over 2026E to 2028E vs 12.9%for peers)—we cut our target price by 14%to HKD11.30(previous:HKD13.10,based on 20.0x average 2026E to 2028E PE).Maintain BUY.
Risks:lower parcel volume and revenue per parcel than we expect,higher costs than we expect,regulatory risks.