Earnings forecasts and valuation
We maintain our FY27/FY28/FY29 attributable net profit forecasts at HKD2,250/2,490/2,770mn. Considering the company's balanced regional footprint spanning the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, China's Taiwan region, and overseas markets, as well as its strong sales resilience amid gold price volatility, we value the stock at about 8x FY27E PE (previous: 9x), in line with its peers' average of 8x 2027E PE on iFind consensus (previous: 8x). We shift from a premium to parity given continued net store closures in the Chinese mainland. Our target price is HKD30.60. Maintain BUY.
Risks: intensified competition, volatile gold prices, slower-than-expected recovery in consumer confidence, slower-than-expected store expansion.